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New study links global warming and air pollution
A new study by an international team of researchers, including scientists from King’s, shows that implementing 14 key air pollution control measures could slow the pace of global warming, save millions of lives and boost agricultural production.
The research identifies 14 measures targeting methane and black carbon emissions that could slow global mean warming by approximately 0.5ºC by 2050. The measures could also prevent between 700,000 and 4.7 million premature deaths each year and increase global crop yields by between 30 million and 135 million tonnes per season.
Professor Martin Williams from the Environmental Research Group at King’s said:
"Measures taken now to reduce carbon dioxide emissions will not have any effect on the global climate for another 40-50 years. We have shown that there are things we can do to begin to mitigate the temperature increases already being seen."
Professor Williams added:
"The combination of methane and black carbon measures along with substantial carbon dioxide emissions reductions has a high probability of limiting global mean warming to less than 2ºC during the next 60 years, something which neither set of emissions reductions achieves on its own."
The research, published in the journal Science (subscription required) was led by Drew Shindell of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City.
Read more on KCL’s website here.
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New Daily Air Quality Index update
As the last of the fireworks died away in the early hours of 1st January, revised web pages and apps were launched by Imperial College London to report to the new national daily air quality index that came in to force at the start of the New Year.
Changes to the index were far reaching, with updates to the break points between the banding levels, measurement periods and reported pollutants; notably the inclusion of PM2.5 in to the index.
One major change to the previous air quality index is the adoption of predictive ‘triggers’ to identify air pollution events before they happen.
The triggers, as recommended in the recent COMEAP report will, for the first time, provide warnings to members of the public of potentially health damaging air pollution events before they happen.
Implementing these changes was particularly challenging because of the Christmas holidays and our wide ranging portfolio of information delivery systems, including regional network web pages, automatic reporting, and our apps for smart phones and browsers. We would like to take this opportunity to thank all those who worked with us over Christmas and New Year to implement this change.
You can read a comprehensive breakdown and analysis of our implementation of the new index here.
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PM10 Nowcast updated
As part of the move to the new daily air quality index, King’s have updated their groundbreaking Nowcast maps to reflect the changes in the reporting period for PM10.
Previously all PM10 data reported in the air quality index was based on a rolling 24 hour average. This meant that the public was only ever seeing a retrospective measurement.
The new daily air quality index changes the reporting period of PM10 to midnight to midnight, and also introduces the concept of triggers (as mentioned above). Intergrating this logic into our hourly PM10 Nowcast maps was a challenge but we have now successfully updated our maps to reflect this change.
The benefits of these changes were highlighted by the winter smog episode on Tuesday 17th of January. Because the PM10 Nowcast map is now based on triggers, the map effectively becomes a prediction of exposure for the rest of the day, updated every hour as new data is collected. All the predictions are then reset at midnight and we start again.
On Tuesday the 17th still, cold conditions led to a build up of local pollutants creating winter smog conditions. Using triggers of predicted PM10 levels for the rest of the day to build the Nowcast map, allowed us to produce a map of predicted pollution concentrations for that day.
On Wednesday 18th, the wind and rain arrived and the pollution was dispersed. Because the predictions are reset at midnight this meant we were able to accurately reflect the pollution levels on the ground and show ‘low’ pollution levels during the 18th.
If, by contrast, we had still been using the old rolling 24 hour system to report PM10 levels then we would have been reporting ‘low’ pollution levels on Tues 17th when they were actually ‘moderate’, and then began displaying ‘moderate’ pollution levels on the 18th when they were actually low.
We are continuing to develop our Nowcast technology and will soon be introducing an ozone map as well as annual maps.
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Recent Episode: Winter Smog mid January 2012
Settled, cold weather on Saturday 14th January led to a buildup of local traffic pollution. Widespread ‘moderate’ nitrogen dioxide and PM10 and PM2.5 particulate was measured close to busy roads throughout London in both central and suburban areas.
There was a temporary respite in pollution levels on Sunday 15th January, caused by a combination of lower emissions and slightly increased wind speed that improved dispersion. Only nitrogen dioxide at Brent - Neasden Lane reached ‘moderate’.
Continuing cold settled conditions and an increase in emissions due to weekday traffic on Monday 16th and Tuesday 17th January resulted in further widespread breaches of the ‘moderate’ threshold for PM10, PM2,5 and nitrogen dioxide, whilst some sites exceeded the ‘high’ threshold for PM10 and nitrogen dioxide.
On Tuesday 17th January, 51 network sites in a wide range of locations across London and southeast England, including Bedfordshire, Reading, Hampshire and Essex, measured ‘moderate’ or above PM10. Four sites in Brent, New Forest, Greenwich and Reading measured ‘high’ PM10.
A change in weather conditions set in overnight on 17th to 18th January. The arrival of rain and milder, windier weather resulted in a drop off in pollution levels.
For the full breakdown see our episodes page here.
Photographer Stuart Mayhew captured an arresting picture of the smog on Saturday.
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ALEHM review the LAQN
The Association of London Environmental Health Managers have issued a statement on the future funding of the London Air Quality Network after a review and meetings involving King’s, The Health Protection Agency, Defra and the GLA.
The review covered the history and operation of the network, provision of public information, support to the Health Protection Agency during emergency incidents and the Olympics and costs of network membership in relation to other monitoring site costs.
The strategic value of the LAQN measurements at both a London-wide and UK level was also highlighted in presentations from the DEFRA and the GLA. In their statement ALEHM concluded:
- The network provides high quality air pollution data and information to support borough level local air quality management and the Mayor's strategies, and also provides important public information on local air quality to Londoners.
- The network benefits from its valuable partnership with Imperial College London, which not only co-ordinates the LAQN, but also undertakes research that informs and shapes policy and strategy at local and regional levels and is recognised at a national and an international level.
- ALEHM members will continue to support and promote the LAQN, and ensure it achieves London-wide coverage wherever possible.
- ALEHM also called for greater partnership between the Mayor and the London Boroughs on the LAQN in the future, with long term financial commitment for the LAQN to support existing monitoring and to address the funding of additional sites in order to ensure that the network is able to provide appropriate coverage in the future.
Read ALEHM’s full statement here
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ClearFlo Intensive Observation Period
The NERC ClearfLo project, involving a number of research groups from the UK, Europe and the US has started the first of its two month-long Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) this week.
The intensive observation period sees an impressive array of gas and particulate monitoring equipment installed at the North Kensington monitoring site in central London and at a rural site in Kent. The study has also resulted in an augmentation of the existing monitoring sites at Marylebone Road, BT Tower and Harwell.
Dr David Green, who operates the ClearfLo sites for King’s says:
"This is a huge undertaking and a fantastic opportunity to gain a detailed understanding of the atmospheric processes which affect air pollution in London."
The next IOP is timed to coincide with the London Olympics.
You can keep up to date with the ClearFlo team on their blog here.
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Health Protection Agency confirms new incinerator study
A new study to further extend the evidence base as to whether emissions from modern, well run Municipal Waste Incinerators (MWIs affect human health has been approved by the Health Protection Agency (HPA).
The HPA’s current position that well run and regulated modern Municipal Waste Incinerators (MWIs) are not a significant risk to public health remains valid, but the study is being carried out to extend the evidence base and to provide further information to the public on this subject.
The HPA will be funding the Small Area Health Statistics Unit at Imperial College London, and the Environmental Research Group at Imperial College London, both part of the MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health, to carry out the study.
For a distance of up to 10 – 15 kilometres from MWIs operating in the England and Wales, scientists will research whether there is a potential link between the emissions from MWIs and health outcomes, including: low birth weight, still births and infant deaths.
Researchers will also investigate any possible link between MWI emissions and babies born with congenital anomalies, such as cleft palate and spina bifida, in areas where good quality data is available.
HPA chief executive Justin McCracken said:
"It is important to stress that our current position on the potential health effects of well run and regulated modern Municipal Waste Incinerators remains valid. This is that while it is not possible to rule out adverse health effects from modern, well regulated municipal waste incinerators with complete certainty, any potential damage to the health of those living close-by is likely to be very small, if detectable. This view is based on detailed assessments of the effects of air pollutants on health and on the fact that modern and well managed municipal waste incinerators make only a very small contribution to local concentrations of air pollutants."
"However, we recognise that there are public concerns about this issue and this study will provide valuable new evidence. HPA continually seeks to review and extend the evidence base on which it bases its advice. We are therefore delighted to support this new study with researchers from the MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health."
Read more on the HPA’s website.
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Dr Gary Fuller interviewed on BBC London’s Inside Out
Dr Gary Fuller was recently interviewed by BBC London for the popular Inside Out programme about pollution in London and the upcoming Olympics.
Inside Out covers a range of topics affecting the city and this edition, presented by Matthew Wright, included a section on London’s air pollution.
The programme looked at some of the Mayor’s recent policy interventions and also included interviews with Clean Air for London campaigner Simon Birkett, Kulveer Ranger, the Mayor’s Director of Environment and asthma sufferers in what was a wide-ranging and thoughtful piece on current air quality issues in London.
The King’s College London Air iPhone appwas also highlighted, with presenter Toby Anstis demonstrating some of its features. This exposure led to a dramatic increase in downloads of the app, such that Tuesday evening and Wednesday saw 2,690 users download and install the applicaiton. Further, of those new downloads, 538 users opted to receive notifications of pollution events on the LAQN network.
The programme will be available on the BBC’s website until the 30th of January, and the air pollution section starts at 19 minutes.
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Video: Winter Smog
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This months video looks at the causes and effects of winter time smogs.
It features interviews with Londoners and advice and insight from Professor Jon Ayres, former chair of COMEAP, Professor Paul Wilkinson from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Dr Gary Fuller, Professor Martin Williams and Professor Frank Kelly from King’s.
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